Explaining The Phils

  • Deep Dive Into The ABS System

    The Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS) is a long awaited feature to MLB games coming to regular season and postseason play for the first time. It has been used twice now in Spring Training play to the appreciation of many players and fans alike. Recently, I had the opportunity to sit in on a meeting with an MLB executive (who I will grant anonymity for the time-being) detailing the new addition going over fan and player reactions, time of game affects, and some new rules for the system debuting at the Major League level. These are my findings.

    Early Results

    In Spring Training this year, MLB found that it had similar results that they saw in Triple-A testing. They saw an estimated 4 challenges per game with about a 50% overturn rate. They also found that in Spring Training, MLB players used challenges consistently throughout the game rather than strategically in the 9th inning like Triple-A players. As MLB players grow more accustomed to the system it will be interesting to see if that statistic will change as the season goes on. The league believes that the ABS strike-zone which accounts for even a tiny slice of the baseball hitting zone could slightly reduce strike-out rates and potentially raise walk-rates. According to Baseball Reference, early results in the 2026 MLB Season have shown both walks per 9 and strikeouts per 9 going up slightly with walks per 9 going from 3.2 last season to 3.8 this season, and strikeouts per 9 going from 8.5 to 8.7 this season. As of writing this, the season is only a couple weeks old and these stats could change exponentially by late September, but it should be noted that there has not been a drastic change in either statistic to date. These numbers could change as players get more familiar with the ABS strike-zone. To this date according to Baseball Savant’s ABS challenge Dashboard, 55% of challenged calls have been overturned with 971 challenge attempts. Pitchers and Catchers account for 522 of those challenges with them having a staggering 61% overturn rate while batters have challenged 449 times with a 47% overturn rate.

    Impact On Speed Of Play

    According to the league, time added to the game is rather insignificant even with the added challenge system. In Triple-A, players challenged 4.2 times per game with an average of 16.1 seconds added on per challenge resulting in just an extra 1 minute and 8 seconds added to game time. In the MLB spring tests, these numbers are even smaller as MLB players challenged at approximately the same clip at 4.1 challenges per game with an average 13.8 seconds used to challenge calls. This results in less than a minute added to game time at just 57 seconds. So far in the early season, time of game also has not gone up by exponential numbers. According to Baseball Reference, in 2025 the average length of game was 2 hours and 40 minutes while in 2026 that number has risen to 2 hours and 45 minutes. This number cannot entirely be explained by the pitch clock. So far in 2026, the number of extra inning games has gone up by almost half a percent which will naturally make the average length of game longer especially in a sample size as small as the one we have currently. Over a full season in 2025, the percentage of games that went to extra innings was 8.60%. that number so far in 2026 has gone up to 9.05%. I would expect that number to even out closer to 2025 numbers which will likely show in the average time of game.

    Fan And Player Feedback

    In a survey sent the fans by MLB asking fans: “what impact is the use of ABS technology having on your experience at this game?” The response from fans was overwhelmingly positive. 72% of fans surveyed said the ABS technology was making a very or slightly positive impact on their experience at the game while on 10% of surveyed fans said it had a very or slightly negative impact on their experience at the game. Interestingly enough, 18% of fans surveyed said that ABS technology had no impact on their enjoyment of the game. For player feedback, the league sent out a survey to Minor League players asking them: “Which game format do you like best?” 60% of Minor League players surveyed answered with the ABS challenge system. 24% of players surveyed said they preferred a full umpire-called game while 16% said they preferred a full ABS system. Once this season ends it will be intriguing to see the reaction from Major League players and if this could even have an effect on Collective Bargaining negotiations for the 2027 season.

    Where Do We Go From Here?

    So far in 2026, the ABS challenge system seems to be a resounding success. It has helped make it so egregious calls no longer have an affect on the outcome of a game like it used to be (thank you Angel Hernandez and CB Bucknor). By season’s end we should see the system being used more strategically as it has been used in Triple-A and Major League players will likely adjust to this system as they have with the pitch clock. The question then becomes: what’s next? Will MLB go even further eventually and have a full ABS called game? Will they add more challenge systems for calls that are currently deemed “judgement calls”? The league is always expanding in ways that could better or potentially hinder the watching experience, but so far, ABS has been a God send in a league where games used to be decided on a CB Bucknor coin flip strikeout.

  • Phillies 2026 Season Preview

    Phillies 2026 Season Preview

    The Phillies are looking to get back to the World Series for first time in four years. With much of the same cast of characters, this time they hope to finish the job. They will be infused with some homegrown talent and returning stars. In an ironic twist, the comments President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski made towards Bryce Harper after the untimely exit from the NLDS could be asked to the whole team: Are they still elite? Or are they just very good?

    The Rotation

    The rotation lost a mainstay in Ranger Suarez this offseason after he signed a 5-year, 130 million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. In his absence, the Phillies hope to replace him with long-time top prospect Andrew Painter who will now be two-years removed from Tommy John surgery. Aside from Painter, the Phillies still boast a very strong top-end of a rotation. Christopher Sanchez finished as the runner-up to Paul Skenes for the National League Cy Young Award. Sanchez was one of only 3 pitchers last season to pitch over 200 innings and he was also top 5 in ERA in all of MLB. Sanchez has as good of a chance as anyone in baseball to go out and win a Cy Young award.

    He is supported by Jesus Luzardo who pitched a career high in innings pitched and strikeouts in his first campaign with the Phillies. To top that off he ended up 7th in Cy Young voting this past season. Luzardo in a contract year will hope to either repeat or surpass his previous campaign to set him up for a major payday whether that is in Philadelphia or elsewhere.

    Aaron Nola in 2025 battled injuries which sidelined him for the first time since 2017. his season produced an uninspiring 17 starts with an ERA over 6 and career highs in both Whip and FIP at 1.346 and 4.58 respectively. coming into camp, Nola is healthy and averaging a higher fastball velocity touching 93 MPH in his first spring training appearance. It is also worth noting that Nola in 2024 finished 11th in Cy Young voting in the National League. If the Phillies can get a more 2024-esque Nola, their rotation will be in very good shape without even mentioning the other pitchers.

    Zack Wheeler is a bit more of a question mark than he has been in recent years. The longtime Phillies ace was on his way to yet another Cy Young caliber campaign as he put up just shy of 150 innings and 195 strikeouts in 2025 before being shutdown for the year to get surgery for venous thoracic outlet surgery in September 2025. For those nervous over how Wheeler will come back from the surgery they need to look no further than Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly who not only came back from the injury, but was one of the best pitchers for the Diamondbacks in their 2023 pennant winning club. Zack Wheeler could return by sometime in May, and if he is even a fraction of his normal self, they will have one of the best rotations in the sport.

    Andrew Painter has been the talk of the town since camp opened in Clearwater this spring. Coming off of Tommy John surgery, he had his first Grapefruit League appearance in exactly 3 years. In his outing he went 2 perfect innings and maxed out at 97.8 on his fastball. Painter is currently the favorite to land the final rotation spot. He likely will not pitch a full season as the Phillies will have to monitor his innings, but he is sure to be a major contributor to the 2026 Phillies after his long awaited debut in the major leagues.

    Taijuan Walker has a lot to prove this season. He split time between the rotation and bullpen last season performing admirably in both roles as injures mounted for the team last season. This season, he will be playing for a contract with another team as he is likely not in the Phillies’ plans past 2026. He appeared in 34 games last year and ended the year with an ERA+ at 108 for the team. If the Phillies deal with injuries this year he will become a very important piece to this team both in the rotation and the bullpen.

    The Phillies continue to look for rotation depth this offseason as the team plays spring training games. According to Todd Zolecki, Phillies beat writer, they are looking for an optionable pitcher that can sit in triple A in the case of injury. Forn those looking at pitchers like Lucas Giolito, that will not happen. The Phillies are not going to guarantee a rotation spot to anyone that they sign before opening day because they feel as if them rotation is set, especially if Zack Wheeler does end up coming back in May.

    The rotation throughout the last 4 years of Phillies playoff baseball has been a strength, and despite the departure of Ranger Suarez, it continues to be so. If the Phillies hope to finish the job in 2026, they will need their rotation to be a strength for the team as it has been in years past.

    The Bullpen

    The 2026 Phillies bullpen will be the strongest opening day unit they have had since the 2008 World Series bullpen. The closer spot, which has been a question mark for the team since time began is now filled by one of the best in the sport. This offseason Dave Dombrowski set out to add controllable depth to the bullpen to get a bridge to Jhoan Duran.

    Jonathan Bowlan will be someone to watch this year for the Phillies. The Phillies traded left hander Matt Strahm to the Royals in a 1-for-1 swap this offseason. Many saw this move as a salary dump by the team. The team sees it as trading a veteran for a talented arm with team control. Bowlan is a reliever with a 5-pitch mix who had a 43.5% whiff rate on his four-seam fastball in 2025. If Caleb Cotham can work his magic with Bowlan, the Phillies could have another very strong right handed option in the bullpen for the next 6 years.

    Brad Keller may turn out to be the “big move” of the offseason for the Phillies. He signed a 2-year, 22 million dollar contract with the Phillies coming off a career renaissance last season with the Cubs. In 68 appearances, Keller posted a career best 2.07 ERA, 187 ERA+, 2.93 FIP, and 9.7 K/9. His job this season will be as the bridge to Duran. He will be another elite right-handed option out of the bullpen in tight situations for the Phillies.

    Orion Kerkering will be under a heavy microscope this season. Kerkering was the pitcher on the mound when the Dodgers walked off the Phillies in the now infamous throwing error from Kerkering to send the Dodgers to the NLCS. This year, there are rumblings of Kerkering adding a splitter to his repertoire as another option to try and get left handed hitters out from the bullpen. If Kerkering can have a big year, the Phillies bullpen will be one of the deepest units in the league.

    In years past, the bullpen was the Phillies weakest link. A revolving door at the closer spot and a taped together closer by committee strategy could only take them so far. This year, their roles are defined and the players in those roles are the best the team has had in almost 20-years. This could be the biggest strength of the team as they hope to make it back to the World Series in 2026.

    The Lineup

    The lineup has been the subject of the majority of Phillies fandom discussion dating back to multiple offseasons. This offseason they pursued right-handed hitter Bo Bichette before he ultimately signed with the Mets to fill the void. It was a disappointing end to what could have heavily shaken up the lineup, but there is still a fair amount to like about the lineup going into 2026.

    The top of the lineup will have the 3 mainstays of Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper. Despite certain discussions this offseason, all 3 players remain elite with both Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber getting MVP votes this past season. Bryce Harper seems to be healthy to start this season and will hope for a bounce back of sorts at the top of the lineup. any of those 3 players could go out and win a MVP. The Phillies success will rely upon all 3 having strong showings in 2026.

    The revolving door of right fielders getting one year deals for the Phillies continues as they signed Adolis Garcia to a 1-year, 10 million dollar contract this past offseason. Garcia is coming off 2 uninspiring seasons where he posted a sub-.700 OPS with high strikeout numbers. The Phillies hope to simplify his approach this year in hopes of a bounce back akin to his 2023 season where he posted a career best .836 OPS and a 127 OPS+. If the Phillies get something even remotely similar to those numbers they will be more than content. Even his 2022 season where he posted a 112 OPS+ would be a step in the right direction for a team that his looked to fill a black hole in the outfield that has prevailed for four years now. At the very least he will provide much better defense and range than Nick Castellanos who profiled as one of the worst defensive outfielders in the league last season.

    Justin Crawford has been knocking on the door of a big league debut for almost a year now. The speedy outfielder will be tasked with stabilizing centerfield and providing speed at the bottom of the lineup. Crawford in Lehigh Valley last season had an on-base percentage exceeding .400 and stole 46 bases in 112 games. Despite ground ball concerns, the team feels confident that he is ready for big league pitching. If he can adjust to big league pitching, Crawford could be a sneaky candidate for Rookie of the Year in 2026, and the perfect link from the bottom of the lineup to the stars at the top.

    The cleanup spot has been a subject of conversation for multiple years now, and the Phillies have not changed their strategy much for this season. They will have either Alec Bohm or JT Realmuto protecting whoever is hitting 3rd whether that is Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber. JT Realmuto has clearly declined at the plate in the last two years. He posted a below average 91 OPS+ in 2025. If the Phillies put him in the cleanup spot it would be organizational malpractice for the success of the 2026 team. The next best option would be Alec Bohm who had mixed results in 2025. Bohm had a just above average 102 OPS+ while battling injuries. From July 1st onward, Alec Bohm maintained an .804 OPS. They need someone to be consistent in the cleanup spot if they want to get where they want to go in 2026.

    The Bottom Line

    The 2026 Phillies look very similar to the team that came before and the team that came before that. They made minor adjustments that if successful could take this team to the next level. There is a clear youth movement present in all aspects of the roster. Maybe this could change the outcome, maybe it won’t. That is the beauty of baseball. What is obvious is that we have yet another very good Phillies team to look forward to for a franchise that does not experience that very often. All we can do is hope and pray to be the last one standing in November of 2026.